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Tuesday, February 9, 2010 |
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Rains may not be enough for local crops
Published April 22, 2009
SEGUIN — The recent rains that swept across the county Friday and Saturday were a mixed blessing for ranchers and farmers, the county’s ag agent told commissioners Tuesday.
Travis Franke, the Texas Cooperative Extension Service agent for Guadalupe County, told commissioners in his monthly report that while the rain is welcome, by itself it falls far short of reversing the drought that has already stunted this year’s corn crop and could affect milo, as well, if not followed by a series of well-spaced, soaking rains.
The next possibility of rain is forecast for Friday and Saturday, when there could be a chance for isolated showers.
In his report, Franke also told commissioners that Guadalupe County kids had 35 steers place in statewide shows during the recent livestock show season.
“The kiddos from our county did extremely, extremely well in the county shows and the major shows,” Franke said. “We’re real proud of them — they worked real hard this year.”
In all, Franke said, more than $100,000 came to local kids in livestock auctions — most of which is money that will be saved to pay for future livestock projects or needs such as college or trade school.
But the bulk of Franke’s report was about the rainfall and what it could portend for this summer’s crops.
“Friday and Saturday we did get a little rain,” Franke said. “The south part of the county seemed to get a little more than up north.”
In the county’s northern reaches, much of the open land is cropland that this spring is planted largely in corn and milo, Franke said. Down south, more of the land is used for grazing animals.
“The rain was good for the pasture land, but not real good for the cropland to the north,” Franke said.
Corn that should by now be waist-high is barely ankle-deep, Franke noted.
While all won’t be lost — corn tassels off, whether waist- or head-high — the corn crop will not likely be a great one, Franke said.
“We’re not looking at a very good corn crop,” he said. “Milo, we’ll have to see down the road.”
Precinct 4 Commissioner Judy Cope asked Franke what this year’s outlook would be for pecans.
“Pecans will be helped significantly, at least, by a really good start of the year, but hopefully, we’ll break the (drought) cycle with the rain we have and hopefully, that will continue.”
Typically, Guadalupe County produces about a million pounds of pecans a year, Franke said. In 2008, only about 200,000 pounds of pecans were harvested here.
“If we continue to get some rain, it will be real good,” Franke told Cope and the other commissioners. “If it doesn’t happen, it will be like last year, which was significantly down.”
At the National Weather Service, nobody’s prepared to say that recent rains reflect the beginning of a new, somewhat more moist weather cycle.
“It’s always hard to make that kind of call on any long term basis,” said National Weather Service meteorologist Bob Fogarty. “We’ve had some good rain events — particularly the last one. But who knows? It could be the last one.”
The National Climate Prediction Center’s long-term forecast calls for “near normal” precipitation, but that doesn’t necessarily mean the drought has broken, Fogarty said.
“There’s nothing in the long range forecast, no signal to tell them whether or not it might go one way or the other,” Fogarty said. “The best we can do is say, ‘Well, maybe we’ll be about normal.’”
The outlooks for June through August and July through September are about the same, Fogarty said.
“That sort of suggests we are getting back to normal precipitation, but it’s too early to say,” Fogarty said. “We’re in sort of a neutral period. It’s kind of wait and see, and hope what we’ve had the last month or so continues.”
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